Odaily Planet Daily News: Bettors on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket collectively misjudged the election of the new pope. Users who bet on the popular candidates Parolin (28% chance of winning) and Tagle (20% chance of winning) lost more than $28 million, while the actual winner Provost (1% chance of winning) was not favored. This rare event exposed the limitations of the prediction market in low-frequency special events, in stark contrast to its 90% prediction accuracy in political elections.
Anonymous top bettor Domer analyzed that the lack of public information for reference in the papal election led users to over-reliance on traditional data. (CoinDesk)