Arthur Hayes Skeptical of U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: “Bitcoin Bros at the Club” Could Undermine Adoption Narrative

BitMEX Co-Founder Doubts U.S. Will Buy More BTC Despite $18B HoldingsArthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has cast doubt on the likelihood of the United States government expanding its Bitcoin reserves, citing the country’s rising debt, political optics, and the cultural perception of crypto holders. In a May 1 interview, Hayes argued that the idea of the U.S. printing money to buy Bitcoin is politically unpalatable, especially amid persistent stereotypes around so-called "Bitcoin bros."Hayes: U.S. unlikely to purchase more Bitcoin beyond seized funds“The United States is a deficit country; the only way they can do a strategic reserve is by not selling the Bitcoin they took from people,” said Hayes, referencing the 198,012 BTC already held by the U.S. government — currently valued at over $18 billion. These holdings stem largely from seizures related to Silk Road, Bitfinex, and other enforcement actions.Hayes questioned whether any elected official would risk political backlash by proposing to print dollars to buy more BTC, especially while mainstream narratives continue to portray Bitcoin users as club-hopping tech bros.“Is that really what you want people to think about your policy?” Hayes asked.Strategic reserve talk raises global accumulation fearsThe idea of a U.S.-led strategic Bitcoin reserve has gained momentum following former President Donald Trump’s March 6 executive order to create a national digital asset stockpile. While the current reserve is composed entirely of seized assets, the order has fueled speculation of future purchases.Crypto leaders warn that such a move could ignite a global race for BTC.“If the U.S. starts buying Bitcoin for a reserve, other countries will rush to accumulate it too,” said 1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz at Cointelegraph’s LONGITUDE event in Dubai.Hayes still sees a traditional Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotationWhile dismissive of the U.S. Bitcoin reserve idea, Hayes reaffirmed his confidence in the traditional market cycle where Bitcoin leads a rally before funds rotate into altcoins.“I personally think Bitcoin dominance is going back to where it was before the 2021 altcoin season, which is about 70%,” said Hayes.As of now, Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.78%, according to TradingView. That’s up 11.68% since January 1, when it hovered just below 60%. Hayes believes the same cyclical behavior will continue despite alternative views from analysts such as Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who argue that stablecoin pairings and fiat-based altcoin volumes have changed the dynamic.Altseason debate continues as market maturesWhile Hayes supports the notion of an altseason resurgence, other experts argue the old signals — like a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance — may no longer hold true in today’s more sophisticated market.Cowen, for instance, has maintained that Bitcoin dominance is unlikely to return to 70%, pegging 60% as the new ceiling. Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju said that altseason is no longer defined by BTC capital rotation, with trading volumes now favoring fiat and stablecoin pairs over BTC-denominated alt trades.As Bitcoin flirts with $96,000 and dominance edges higher, the question remains whether history will repeat — or if the maturing crypto market will follow a new path.