Analysis: Macro data makes US recession this year a “base case”, Bitcoin expected to rise

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin is expected to benefit when the US recession becomes the "baseline scenario expectation". Multiple sources are pessimistic about the US economy and the Federal Reserve. The trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the US GDP growth rate unexpectedly turned negative in the first quarter, and the trade tariff policy may aggravate inflation, and the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and unemployment, and the extent and timing of interest rate cuts are key. Not cutting interest rates will weaken GDP and increase unemployment, and immediate interest rate cuts may cause inflation to rebound. The Federal Reserve faces the dual threats of stagflation and full recession. Kobeissi said that the US economic recession has become the baseline expectation. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies are conservative and unlikely to change significantly before 2025. The market believes that the FOMC may cut interest rates by 0.25% at the June meeting, and the possibility in May is only 3%. Crypto market participants are weighing the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. Well-known trader Skew said that the probability of interest rate cuts has increased, the situation is urgent, and the Federal Reserve is more concerned about economic weakness. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that the increase in rumors of a recession will strengthen the argument for the Fed to ease policy, when market liquidity increases and risk appetite may increase. (Cointelegraph)