US Core PCE Inflation and ADP Jobs Data in Focus as Traders Await Fed Signals

All eyes are on two major U.S. economic indicators set to be released tonight: the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the ADP employment report — both closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.Inflation Gauge Expected to CoolAt 22:00 (UTC+4), the annual Core PCE Price Index for March will be published, with markets expecting a reading of 2.60%, down from February’s 2.80%. This deceleration could signal easing inflationary pressure and may influence the Fed’s tone on future rate decisions.Core PCE — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the central bank has held a long-term inflation target of 2.0% since 2012. Persistent readings above that level could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.ADP Employment Growth Seen SlowingAhead of the PCE data, the ADP National Employment Report for April will be released at 20:15 (UTC+4). Analysts forecast a moderate increase of 115,000 private sector jobs, down from 155,000 in March. A downside surprise could reinforce concerns about a cooling labor market, adding to speculation of a potential pause or pivot in Fed policy.Market ImplicationsStronger-than-expected inflation or job growth could raise expectations for additional rate hikes or delay potential cuts, adding pressure to risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a downside miss could fuel a bullish move in Bitcoin and tech stocks, as markets may price in a more accommodative Fed stance.