TS Lombard: As long as the data does not suddenly deteriorate, the Fed will stick to the pace of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting

Macro research firm TS Lombard said that implementing easing policies too quickly increases the risk that the current low inflation rate will be fleeting, especially if liquidity continues to be excessive. The company's guess is that unless the data suddenly deteriorates, the Fed will stick to the pace of 25 basis points of interest rate cuts at each meeting. In other words, the market is already one or two steps ahead of the Fed. With an economic slowdown looming, the Fed's federal funds rate will reach 3.75%, but a recession is ultimately avoided and the expected return of inflation to 2% will prove to be a fantasy. The company said that the market deliberately ignored the risk of worse inflation outcomes without even considering what Harris or the Trump administration would do. However, the Fed should not ignore the inflation risks brought about by excess liquidity. (Jinshi)