Galaxy Research Director: Bitcoin selling pressure caused by Mt.Gox compensation will be less than expected

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, wrote on the X platform that creditors have been trapped in the Mt.Gox bankruptcy case for more than a decade. BTC and BCH in-kind compensation is expected to start in July, but the number of tokens distributed in the end will be less than people think, and the Bitcoin selling pressure caused by Mt.Gox will be less than expected. Mt.Gox lost about 940,000 bitcoins that year, which was worth $424 million at the time. So far, 15% has been recovered, or 141,868 bitcoins. Although only 15% has been recovered, creditors calculated in US dollars have gained 140 times the profit. In addition, creditors may need to bear a loss of about 10%. It is expected that 75% of BTC delistings will choose to bear a 10% loss, which means that about 95,000 bitcoins will be used to pay claims, of which about 20,000 tokens are owed to the claim fund, 10,000 tokens are owed to Bitcoinica BK, and about 6,500 are owed to individual creditors (6,500 This figure is much lower than the 141,868 previously released by the media), so the number of tokens distributed in the final compensation will be lower than market expectations. Creditors clearly prefer long-term Bitcoin holders, but there is reason to believe that individual creditors will be more generous than the market expects. Once these tokens are distributed, a large part will be sold by creditors to markets with less liquidity. All tokens will be distributed to creditor accounts of Kraken, Bitstamp or Bitgo. Once the coins are transferred to these entities, it is expected to take 24-72 hours to appear in user accounts. In addition, Alex Thorn also predicted that BCH may perform worse in the Mt. Gox distribution because no creditors initially purchased BCH, and BCH has much lower liquidity than BTC, especially on Kraken and Bitstamp, the two exchanges where creditors will receive the tokens. Therefore, once these tokens are distributed, BCH will perform worse relative to BTC because creditors are more likely to sell BCH in a less liquid market.