Andrew Kang: Ethereum spot ETF has far less impact on the market than Bitcoin, and ETH has limited upside potential

Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, published an article on X to analyze the potential impact of Ethereum spot ETFs on the market. He said that Bitcoin spot ETFs provide a channel for many new buyers to allocate Bitcoin in their portfolios, but the impact of Ethereum ETFs is far less clear. Unless Ethereum creates a convincing way to improve economic conditions, its price will not usher in a considerable upside due to the approval of spot ETFs. Kang expects the flow of funds for Ethereum spot ETFs to be lower than the general market expectations, especially in the first few weeks: because the approval of the ETF was unexpected, the issuer did not have much time to convince large holders to convert their ETH to ETFs; on the other hand, it is less attractive for holders to convert ETH because they need to give up staking or use the income of ETH as DeFi collateral (note: the staking rate is only 25%). He further added that at a certain price, Ethereum will still be considered valuable. When Bitcoin rises in the future, it will be pulled up to some extent. Before the ETF is launched, ETH is expected to trade between $3,000 and $3,800; after the ETF is launched, the expectation is $2,400 to $3,000. However, if BTC reaches $100,000 by the end of Q4/Q1 2025, then this may lead ETH to a new all-time high, but ETH/BTC will fall further and be between 0.035 and 0.06 in the next year.