Matrixport: Bitcoin holders’ wealth will increase by US$500 billion this year, and the macroeconomy may be good for Bitcoin in 2024

Matrixport released the latest report stating that the U.S. inflation rate is expected to fall to 2% in 2024. Macroeconomics should support Bitcoin prices higher in 2024. Bitcoin miners tend to limit the supply of new Bitcoins around the halving cycle, with Bitcoin hitting an all-time high six months after the halving (the halving is expected to occur in April next year). Financing rates for Bitcoin remain high, suggesting traders expect the price to rise, while implied volatility remains high even as S&P 500 volatility has fallen to multi-year lows. Funding rates are therefore expected to drop over the Christmas holidays, but volatility may still rise as traders hedge against potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals. According to report analysis, Bitcoin has been in a sideways trading range since December 8. But with the Bitcoin spot ETF expected to be approved in early January 2024, the lower support of the range ($40,000) is expected to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, reports remain cautious on whether Bitcoin can break higher over Christmas. Historically, Bitcoin has gained 3% from December 24 to December 31, but returns have been tempered by strong returns in Bitcoin's early years, with prices lower in four of the past five years. . This means we may have seen the highs for the year and prices may continue to consolidate into the end of the year. Bitcoin’s market capitalization rose from $320 billion to $827 billion, and Bitcoin holders’ wealth increased by approximately $500 billion. On October 31, 2017, when CME Group announced the launch of fourth quarter Bitcoin futures, CBOE Bitcoin futures were listed on December 10 and CME on December 17. From announcement to launch, Bitcoin gained 212%. A similar scenario could happen when a Bitcoin spot ETF is approved. The most likely approval periods are January 8, 9 and 10. Given the frequent meetings between the SEC and BlackRock in particular, expectations that a Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in January have increased. Coincidentally, Tether’s stablecoin minting rate has slowed since December 8 – suggesting that institutional money flows from fiat to cryptocurrencies may be waiting for new demand in early January. The report also stated that TVL, which was $38 billion at the beginning of 2023, has now increased to $51 billion, which was the highest level before the collapse of FTX. As staking becomes Ethereum’s key value proposition, Lido’s TVL rises significantly. Lido's TVL increased from $6 billion to $20 billion. But overall, DeFi performance in 2023 has been disappointing. This year’s annual transaction must be Grayscale GBTC, because its negative premium rate narrowed from 47% to 8%. Although the price of Bitcoin increased by 154%, GBTC increased by 326% during the same period.