Wall Street Strategists Predict S&P 500 Performance in 2024

According to Yahoo News, as December begins, Wall Street strategy teams are providing their educated predictions on where the S&P 500 will stand at the end of 2024. While initial forecasts focused on the potential rise of the index, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have raised questions about its direction. These predictions offer insight into how these teams are considering known knowns, known unknowns, and other available data, while acknowledging that new unknown unknowns, tail risks, black swans, and investors will emerge over time. The S&P 500 strategist forecasts are considered secondary to the Federal Reserve forecasts made by Wall Street's economics teams. The current conversation is dominated by the Fed's potential rate cuts, inflation abating, and the progress of consumer resiliency. DataTrek's Nick Colas has issued a warning that many investors have learned the hard way, stating that the worst rookie mistake in investing is believing that the stock market and economy move in lockstep. He emphasizes that stocks look forward and that a mild recession could temporarily lower stock prices, but the focus should be on 2024 returns rather than a quarter or two of equity market performance.