Matrixport: The plea deal is good for both CZ and Binance and will help the US approve a spot Bitcoin ETF

Matrixport’s latest report shows that with CZ stepping down as CEO and the fine amount being lower than the previously feared $10 billion, Binance is likely to remain one of the top three exchanges in the next 2-3 years. There may be pressure to "rationalize" the company with 6,000 employees. Although this plea agreement does not include the US SEC, it is a very favorable outcome for CZ and Binance itself. One might think that U.S. agencies are cleaning up the industry this year by breaking up U.S. cryptocurrency-related banks, since two of the banks run an internal ledger that crypto companies can use around the clock to move fiat currency. Arguably, there are not many (perceived) major players left and the market is pricing in a major risk-off event. Regarding the impact of this regulation, the report analyzed that more exchanges will strengthen their compliance programs and become part of the monitoring sharing agreement, which will help approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. With this plea agreement, expectations for spot Bitcoin ETFs may have been raised to 100% as the entire industry will be forced to adhere to the same rules that traditional financial companies must follow. What’s more, a washout of the industry will strengthen the case for Bitcoin adoption among institutional investors and could make Bitcoin a safe-haven asset in investor portfolios. Agencies are coming, and all enforcement actions by U.S. agencies this year are a step in that direction. As the macro environment continues to provide favorable conditions and institutional demand, 2024 is likely to be another strong year for Bitcoin - and CZ may return during the next bear market in 2026.