AI TRENDS | Anthropic's Preliminary IPO Valuation Range Is $1.25T–$1.4T as Investors Expect Higher Pricing

Anthropic's preliminary IPO valuation range is $1.25 trillion to $1.4 trillion ahead of its planned Nasdaq listing next week, if plans proceed. According to Sina Finance, several investors interviewed expect the final pricing to exceed that range. AllianceBernstein small- and mid-cap growth Chief Investment Officer Samantha Lau said pricing above the range would indicate strong underlying demand. The preliminary range is below the $1.5 trillion or higher valuation investment banks had previously expected. Investors said OpenAI's fundraising plans—targeting $9 billion, with an upper target of $11 billion—had weighed on the lower end of Anthropic's range. Anthropic's third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, compared with OpenAI's $10 billion. One valuation scenario assumes Anthropic's annualized revenue approaches $100 billion by year-end, up from $81 billion on an October basis, and doubles over the following two years. With an adjusted operating margin of 25%, compared with 19% in the June quarter, that scenario implies about $50 billion in operating profit in 2028 and a current valuation above 25 times 2028 EBIT. Gabelli Funds portfolio manager John Belton called a roughly 25-times EBIT multiple inexpensive relative to software stocks but somewhat expensive compared with large technology companies. Morningstar analyst Ahmed Khan valued Anthropic at $1.7 trillion and forecast 47% annualized revenue growth over five years. His optimistic scenario valued the company at $3.4 trillion, potentially still too low if its models can train and iterate autonomously. Investors also raised questions about the effects of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's reported resignation on AI-sector volatility and Anthropic's IPO. Belton said model companies benefit from Nvidia's ongoing technical innovation. Another investor said Anthropic's chip neutrality could be an advantage over OpenAI and Google, while demand for IPO funds may prompt investors to trim semiconductor holdings. Investors also questioned whether Anthropic can sustain growth beyond its AI coding-assistant business and expand into other industries.