Goldman Sachs Forecasts 10-Year Treasury Yield Falling to 4.6% by End-2027

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall to 4.6% by the end of 2027, supported by stronger hedging demand and moderate inflation. According to Sina Finance, the bank’s strategists said this forecast is below the Bloomberg survey’s average estimate of 4.82%; the yield stood at 5.12% last Friday. The strategists also expect the trade-weighted dollar index to fall about 3% in 2027 and say the undervalued yen could become a more attractive hedge. Persistent energy shocks, high inflation, or a strong labor market remain risks to the bond outlook, while a faster-than-expected slowdown in AI spending could push yields lower.