Prediction Markets Cement Role After Forecasting Democratic Sweep of Congress

According to CNBC, prediction markets favored Democrats to flip both chambers of Congress before the first polls closed at 6:00 p.m. ET Tuesday. Democrats had won 54 Senate seats so far, including Iowa, where markets had put the race at 50-50, and South Carolina, where Republicans had been narrow favorites. In the outstanding Mississippi and Alaska races, markets gave Democrats Scott Colom and Mary Peltola 90% odds of winning. Polymarket said it called 10 key races a median 31 minutes before CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press. Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such said the platform made confident calls when a candidate’s odds exceeded 99% and trading on the opponent had dried up.