Anthropic IPO Investors Push for Cautious Valuation Closer to $1.5 Trillion

Institutional investors who plan to buy into Anthropic's IPO are converging on a lower valuation after last week's technology selloff, telling the Claude maker and its advisers that the company should be worth about $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal. That is well below the figures near $2 trillion that had circulated in recent months. Investors point to choppy markets and mounting worry about overexposure to AI bets, along with political backlash against data centers and uncertainty over how soon hyperscalers such as Amazon and Meta can show AI-related profits. Anthropic has not settled on a valuation target and is still weighing how many shares to sell. It had already heard from some investors after last month's investor day that the number should be nearer $1.5 trillion, The Information and Reuters reported earlier — before double-digit declines in tech stocks including Intel and Alphabet following disappointing earnings. Some investors say they trust Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao to set a conservative valuation and prioritize a first-day "pop" for IPO buyers. They argue that even a debut at roughly $1.5 trillion could climb to $2 trillion by the close of the first session. SpaceX jumped 30% on its first trading day in June, before AI jitters took hold more broadly. Anthropic plans to start its roadshow as soon as next week, targeting a market debut in the week before Thanksgiving. It will set out a target valuation when the roadshow begins by disclosing the number of shares it hopes to sell and a price range. Unlike SpaceX, which named a single price, Anthropic is expected to take the traditional route and propose a range, the people said. In an updated filing Monday, Anthropic said revenue reached $17 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6 billion in the prior quarter, partly offset by $600 million in price cuts from new model versions and contractual discounts. It also disclosed purchase commitments and lease agreements with total committed spending of about $895.4 billion, including roughly $447.5 billion expected before the end of 2030 and substantially all the rest likely falling between 2031 and 2045. The shift in mood is spreading to other companies eyeing listings, many of which are waiting to see how Anthropic fares. A smooth debut is expected to unleash a wave of offerings early next year.