Automotive analyst John Murphy released his latest outlook on the U.S. auto market on Tuesday. According to Sina Finance, he said the chances of Chinese automakers entering the U.S. market are low in the short term, and he expects hybrid vehicle demand to surge over the next four years, with hybrids reaching 34% of the market by 2030.
Murphy also said U.S. lawmakers have little willingness to approve such a move, citing concerns about pressure on U.S. automakers and the domestic auto industry. He added that even if Chinese automakers were to build factories in the United States, allowing them to enter the market without restrictions would still have a major impact on the industry.
According to the report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that starting next year, automakers will be barred from importing or selling vehicles in the United States that use technology developed or produced by Chinese companies. Murphy also said that, over the next decade, 5 to 10 of the brands currently sold in the U.S. market could exit, and he identified Polestar, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar, and Fiat as the five brands most likely to leave U.S. sales.
Murphy said demand for conventional hybrids that do not need external charging and offer strong fuel economy is popular with mainstream consumers. J.D. Power data showed that hybrids accounted for more than 18% of vehicles sold in the U.S. market in January-July. He also said U.S. battery-electric vehicles are likely to see only modest growth before 2030, and that the industry is facing a sharp slowdown in new-model launches in 2026-2028.
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