Shares Turn Cautious Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut as FX, Bonds Hold Breath

Asian shares turned cautious on Friday after a Nvidia-fueled technology rally, while currency and bond markets held their breath for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to speak on US interest rates, according to Reuters. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.5%, while Taiwanese shares gained 0.8% after Nvidia jumped nearly 9% overnight on robust results signaling the AI spending boom has years left to run. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.4%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were off 0.2%. All eyes are on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Warsh is slated to speak later in the day. Three Fed officials have already sounded the alarm about sticky inflation, but the new chief has resisted providing forward guidance on rates. Futures imply about a 35% chance of a rate increase at the September 16 meeting and are fully priced for a move by December. ANZ analysts said markets hope Warsh will reduce some uncertainty around the Fed's reaction function, but if he offers too little amid recent rates volatility, it could trigger an adverse market reaction. Longer-dated yields jumped after the July meeting as Warsh was seen as not offering enough concrete steps on inflation, and he is presiding over a divided Fed. On Friday, 30-year Treasury yields edged up one basis point to 5.2045% but were down seven basis points for the week, after briefly topping 5.3% last week for the first time since 2007 and prompting a surprise US Treasury move to step up buybacks. Ten-year yields rose one basis point to 4.6842% and two-year yields held at 4.2340%. The dollar was little changed against major peers at 99.20 but up 0.4% for the week. The Australian dollar was among the best-performing G10 currencies after a hot inflation report triggered a sharp repricing of the Reserve Bank of Australia's outlook, hitting a three-month high of $0.72 and set for a ninth straight weekly gain. Oil headed for weekly losses after Iran and Oman agreed on administering traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and sharing revenues, with Brent easing 0.4% to $89.33 a barrel, down more than 5% for the week. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,579 an ounce.