Copper and Aluminum Shares Fall as U.S. Rate-Hike Bets Jump

China's nonferrous metal sector came under pressure on July 24 as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns resurfaced, with the Huatai-PineBridge Nonferrous Metals ETF (159652) falling more than 4.8% by 11:26 and drawing more than 70 million yuan in net inflows the previous day, according to Jiemian News. Most of the ETF's constituent stocks retreated, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Gold, CMOC, Huayou Cobalt, Aluminum Corp. of China, Zhongjin Gold and China Northern Rare Earth. The selloff followed stronger U.S. labor data that revived expectations the Federal Reserve will stay focused on inflation. The U.S. Labor Department said initial jobless claims for the week ended July 18 fell by 22,000 from the prior week to 187,000, the biggest weekly drop in three months and the lowest reading since September 1969. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a Fed rate hike at the September policy meeting jumping to about 82% from less than 53% a week earlier. The U.S. dollar index rose again, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.30% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025. Jiemian News also cited analysts who said copper supplies were disrupted after the Democratic Republic of Congo's tax authority sealed parts of Kamoto Copper Company's facilities on July 9 over alleged tax arrears of nearly $3 billion, while aluminum stocks were supported by company earnings growth and a global supply gap. In gold, the World Gold Council's 2026 survey found 89% of central bank reserve managers expect global central bank gold reserves to keep rising over the next 12 months.