Citrini Research Forecasts Global DRAM Supply Gap of 28.7EB by 2030

Citrini Research forecasts a global DRAM supply gap of 28.7 exabytes (EB) by 2030, accounting for about 18% of total demand. According to Jin10, data shared by Citrini Research researcher Zephyr projects 2030 demand (including HBM) at 157.5 EB against supply of 128.8 EB. Standard DRAM is the biggest bottleneck, with annual supply of roughly 91 EB versus demand of 120 EB, widening the gap from 18% to around 25%. Even as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese producers expand capacity, new supply may be quickly absorbed by surging AI demand. The core cause is the AI infrastructure boom, with large model training and inference and HBM as a key AI accelerator component also driving traditional server DRAM demand. Under tight conditions, DRAM average selling price (ASP) could remain high long-term, estimated at $1.5–$2 per Gb, keeping cost pressure on servers, PCs, and consumer electronics memory. For reference, this year's total global DRAM production capacity is about 40 EB.