Kalshi Odds of US Gas Above $4 by End of Month Jump to 90% on Iran Strikes

According to CNBC, the probability that U.S. gas prices will exceed $4 per gallon by the end of this month has risen to 90% on the prediction market Kalshi, up from 56% two days ago. Traders now see a 93% chance of prices topping $4 and a 63% chance of surpassing $4.10. The contract is verified by AAA. Wednesday's national average gas price stood at $3.89, about 3 cents higher than Tuesday. Last month's average crossed $4, while the 2025 high of $4.56 was recorded on May 21. Traders assign less than a 5% probability of prices exceeding $4.50 again this month. The speculation follows the U.S. ending its ceasefire with Iran last week and launching new strikes. U.S. Central Command said it conducted a second wave of strikes on Iran Wednesday afternoon, following earlier strikes that morning, aimed at degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen for three consecutive days, with WTI August futures closing at $79.60 per barrel, up 0.3%, and Brent September futures settling at $84.95 per barrel, also up 0.3%.