RBC: Economic Improvement Supports Hold Stance, Bank of Canada Likely to Keep Rate Unchanged for Sixth Straight Time

The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% when it announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. According to Jin10, this would mark the sixth consecutive hold after a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut in September and October of last year. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) stated that over the past month, the surge in oil prices has not shown clear signs of evolving into a broader and more persistent inflationary shock. RBC further noted that Canada's economic growth and labor market data have also improved compared to earlier. While first-quarter GDP growth unexpectedly fell short of expectations, economic growth momentum strengthened in the second quarter. The labor market showed further signs of stabilization in May and June, and consumer spending data remained resilient. Overall, although the Canadian economy remains weak, per-capita economic growth is expected to gradually improve. Against this backdrop, RBC believes the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.