CITIC Securities: U.S.-Iran Standoff Risks Becoming Prolonged

CITIC Securities said the current U.S.-Iran standoff carries a risk of becoming prolonged. According to Jin10, the brokerage said renewed disruptions from the recent U.S.-Iran conflict have resurfaced. CITIC Securities argued that fundamental flaws in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have made implementation difficult, increasing the likelihood that the impasse persists. It said the situation could remain characterized by an inability to form a stable agreement, a pattern of intermittent fighting and pauses, and periodic disruptions to passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The report said market expectations generally hold that U.S. midterm elections later this year will constrain the Trump administration's war-related actions. However, CITIC Securities said that as long as the probability of the Republican Party losing the Senate continues to decline, pressure tied to issues such as the Supreme Court, impeachment investigations, and election disputes would be limited. It added that market expectations may be overestimating the impact of the midterm elections on the Trump administration's behavior.