STOCKS | Guotai Haitong Sees a Liquidity Easing Window for Hong Kong Stocks From Late July to Mid-September

Guotai Haitong chief strategy analyst Fang Yi said Hong Kong stocks could enter a window of easing micro-level funding conditions from late July to mid-September. According to Jin10, Fang said the first reason is that Hong Kong IPO activity has temporarily entered a seasonal lull that is expected to last until the end of September. The second reason is that the early-July peak in share lock-up expirations has passed, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to face large-scale lock-up expirations totaling more than HK$30 billion going forward. Fang also said the likelihood is rising that expectations for overseas interest-rate hikes will be revised. He noted that since June, shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have improved significantly and oil prices have retreated from elevated levels. He said this is expected to marginally reduce imported inflation pressure in the United States, creating room for a revision in rate-hike expectations over the next two months. However, Fang said several risks to overseas liquidity still warrant caution, including an unexpectedly strong U.S. dollar index, the Hong Kong dollar potentially hitting the weak-side convertibility undertaking and triggering Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervention that tightens liquidity, and lingering uncertainty around U.S.-Iran conflict developments.