BEA to Revise Core PCE Calculation Methods in Data Update Due September 30, 2026

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said it will adjust parts of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index methodology, with the changes expected to appear in data revisions released on September 30, 2026. According to Odaily, market estimates suggest the adjustment could lower the core PCE inflation rate by about 0.2 percentage points. Current data show core PCE inflation was 3.4% over the 12 months through May 2026 and has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target since March 2021. The BEA’s changes focus on price calculation methods in three subcategories: portfolio management and investment advisory services, computer software and accessories, and legal services. Former Fed Governor Stephen Miran said in a speech last December that some increases that should have been recorded as higher quantities of services consumed were instead recorded as price increases. Miran and Federal Reserve economists Alessandro Barbarino and Anthony M. Diercks published a paper in May analyzing shortcomings in existing statistical methods, including measurement issues for products such as portable storage devices and video games. JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart said that “Grand Theft Auto 6” might also have an opportunity to influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve.