Bailey Speech in Sintra Draws Focus as UK Inflation Is Expected to Peak

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to face less pressure when he speaks in Sintra this week, as falling global oil prices have eased near-term inflation concerns. According to Jin10, the Bank of England had recently faced a policy dilemma over how to balance a weak UK labor market against the threat of rising inflation. Institutional research expected inflation to peak at 3% and then fall to 2.3% next year, which it said was well below the Bank of England’s earlier expectations. The research also expected this backdrop to allow the central bank to cut its policy rate to 3.5% from 3.75% by June 2027. Markets are watching whether Bailey will effectively endorse that view in his remarks today and explicitly rule out the possibility of further rate hikes.