Nomura: Rising Intervention Watch Caps USD/JPY Gains Near 163

Nomura’s global foreign exchange strategy team said the U.S. dollar’s rise against the Japanese yen has remained constrained as markets have become more alert to the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the currency market. According to Jin10, four analysts on the team wrote in a research report that, while their sample size was extremely limited, past intervention episodes suggest the likelihood of action by Japan’s Ministry of Finance increases as USD/JPY approaches the 163 level. They said the 163 threshold was derived from calculations based on data showing that Japan carried out yen-buying currency interventions twice within the same year in both 2022 and 2024.