Crypto for Advisors: Trading the bitcoin cycle

Markus Thielen of 10x Research argues advisors should trade bitcoin’s four-year cycle rather than rely on dollar-cost averaging, saying DCA can leave clients exposed to drawdowns that have historically exceeded 70%. According to CoinDesk, Thielen says a cycle-aware, rules-based approach using momentum, trend and on-chain cost-basis signals improved backtested risk-adjusted returns, citing a Sharpe ratio of 1.22 versus 0.82 for buy-and-hold and a maximum drawdown reduced to −44% from −80%. In an “Ask an Expert” section, Verde Capital Management’s Eric Tomaszewski says investors should focus on where value accrues in crypto, and argues ETH could evolve into a digital reserve asset used as collateral even if Layer 2s reduce fee capture.