Bond yield curve flattens, complicating near-term bitcoin bull run

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flattening, a move seen as signaling a more hawkish Federal Reserve and potentially higher rates for longer—an unfavorable backdrop for bitcoin and other non-yielding risk assets. According to CoinDesk, the gap between the 10- and two-year yields has narrowed to 28 basis points, the tightest since April 2025, while the 30-year/5-year spread is also at its lowest since April of last year. The shift follows Wednesday’s Fed decision to hold rates unchanged but deliver hawkish guidance, with the 2026 median dot-plot projection raised to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.