JPMorgan’s Panigirtzoglou Says Bitcoin Devaluation-Hedge Trade Is Fading as ETF Outflows Rise

JPMorgan analyst team head Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the devaluation-hedge trade has been fading and that bitcoin’s pullback has recently accelerated. According to ChainCatcher, gold ETFs saw about $20 billion in outflows in the week ending June 5, while bitcoin ETFs have recorded gradually increasing outflows over the past four weeks. Panigirtzoglou described the devaluation-hedge trade as investors buying bitcoin and gold in response to geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, rising government debt, and demand to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. JPMorgan said this trade continues to unwind across ETFs, futures markets, and investor positioning. The bank also noted that bitcoin’s correlation with 10-year U.S. Treasury real yields has recently turned negative. It added that gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 has moved closer to bitcoin’s positive correlation with equities, suggesting both assets have recently behaved more like risk assets. Analysts reiterated that a stronger second half would require treasury companies to set clear dividend plans and for the Clarity Act to pass, though they put the probability of passage at below 50%. They added that current market weakness could ultimately become a bullish contrarian signal.