U.S. May CPI Seen Rising Above 4% as Gasoline Prices Increase

A Comerica Bank economist said U.S. inflation in May was expected to accelerate, driven largely by higher gasoline prices. According to Jin10, Comerica Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Bill Adams expected the year-over-year increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May to exceed 4%, which he said would be the highest in three years, mainly due to last month’s rise in gasoline prices. Adams said core CPI inflation was expected to remain relatively moderate, near 3% year over year. He added that May’s price gains were expected to outpace average hourly earnings growth, implying a further erosion in consumers’ real purchasing power. Adams also expected the Producer Price Index (PPI) to post another notable increase, with a larger rise than CPI. He attributed this to the heavier weighting of petroleum products, metals, and transportation costs in the producer price basket. Separately, he said the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for early June was expected to rebound from May’s record low, supported by a pullback in gasoline prices over the past two weeks and gains in the stock market.