Macquarie Expects Hawkish RBA Hold to Reinforce August Rate-Hike Bets

Macquarie analysts said the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the cash rate unchanged next week while delivering a hawkish message that reinforces market expectations for an interest-rate increase in August. According to Jin10, the analysts said recent RBA communications show no sign the central bank is considering a shift toward rate cuts. Macquarie said it used AI to analyze the wording of official RBA communications under the bank’s three most recent governors, and found the current tone closely resembles language used ahead of several past rate hikes. The analysts said the RBA appears intent on keeping expectations that “further rate hikes remain on the table” until inflation risks are resolved.