Brent Crude Jumps as Israel Strikes Iran Military Targets After Missile Attack

Brent crude prices surged, rising as much as 5% intraday, after Israel said it struck military targets inside Iran following an Iranian missile attack, raising concerns about a fragile Middle East ceasefire and complicating negotiations. According to Jin10, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said the weekend escalation between Israel and Iran again showed how fragile the ceasefire is. Lipow said intensifying hostilities have increased geopolitical risks, including the possibility that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than expected, and that the likelihood is rising that Iran could take additional steps to restrict Red Sea shipping. Harris Kourshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago, said the market had previously underestimated the large differences that remain among the parties and had been oscillating between pricing in the possibility of an agreement and pricing in reality. Kourshid added that even if the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement, multiple obstacles would still prevent a normal restoration of oil flows. He cited the need to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility that shut oil fields could take months to restart, and the need to repair damage to energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks.