JPMorgan Forecasts Late-June Oil Price Rise as Strait of Hormuz Transit Deal Stalls

Global oil inventories have been falling toward what industry executives and analysts described as dangerously low levels as an agreement on tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be reached. According to Jin10, executives and analysts warned that another oil price shock could emerge in the coming weeks and be severe enough to affect broader financial markets. JPMorgan forecast that oil prices could rise quickly in late June unless transit through the strait returns to normal. U.S. crude inventories have fallen for eight consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level since February 2024. Analysts said the risk of a second round of price shocks was real and could stem from the depletion of buffering mechanisms rather than a closure of the strait itself. Investors viewed the Strait of Hormuz as a persistent geopolitical bottleneck and said oil prices were unlikely to return below $70 even if tensions eased. The report said higher oil prices would pose a “mild headwind” to the U.S. economy, while Europe and Asia were more vulnerable to sustained energy inflation. It added that if crude rose to $120 a barrel and stayed there for a year, U.S. economic growth could slow by about 0.4 percentage points.