Market analysis suggests that if the merger between SpaceX and Tesla, driven by Elon Musk, proceeds, SpaceX may need to issue new shares equivalent to 94% of its current outstanding shares to acquire Tesla. This would increase the total share count to approximately 8 billion. According to Odaily, the financial logic of the transaction faces challenges as Tesla's GAAP net profit over the past 12 months has decreased from $15 billion in 2023 to $3.9 billion. Excluding regulatory credit income and Bitcoin gains, the core operating profit is about $2.3 billion.
Analysts believe the transaction essentially involves using a highly valued asset to acquire another company with a similarly high valuation, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding its long-term profitability and cash flow performance. The merged company's valuation could reach $3.4 trillion, with SpaceX expected to be valued at $1.75 trillion and Tesla's current market value at approximately $1.65 trillion. Musk may leverage the high valuation from SpaceX's upcoming IPO to support Tesla, which is under performance pressure.