On May 27, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heightened, leading to a reduction in market risk appetite and a rise in oil prices, which has reignited inflation concerns and strengthened market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. According to Jin10, multiple factors have contributed to the weakening of silver prices. On one hand, the resilience of the U.S. economy is evident, with the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April at 0.14, significantly better than the previous -0.15. Although the U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index and current situation index for May have declined from previous levels, the confidence index still exceeded market expectations. Additionally, the renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed up oil prices, raising inflation concerns and reinforcing market pricing for a Fed rate hike by year-end. On the other hand, the spot silver market remains weak, with London silver lease rates continuing to operate at low levels. In the short term, silver prices remain volatile, with overall low investor interest. Attention is focused on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the resumption of navigation in the strait. If negotiations progress smoothly, a short-term rebound in silver prices is possible, although interest rate expectations continue to suppress the trend. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, pushing up oil prices, there is a need to be cautious about the potential mid-term suppression of silver's industrial elasticity and possible supply disruptions. In the long term, the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility, along with safety and investment demand, provides solid support for silver prices.
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