China's Hog Industry Faces Key Turning Point in 2026, Analysts Say

Recent reports indicate that China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has been implementing policies to shift the hog industry from scale expansion to high-quality development. According to Jin10, institutions predict that 2026 will be a critical turning point for the hog industry, with a strong performance rebound expected in 2027 as the sector prepares for a new upward cycle. Citic Securities noted that the current decline in pork prices has exceeded expectations due to an oversupply combined with a long-term decrease in demand. Additionally, the increased industry concentration has led to intensified competition among manufacturers, and improvements in breeding efficiency have made capacity reduction challenging, resulting in less noticeable price increase cycles. Looking ahead, the industry is still at the beginning of capacity reduction, which is progressing slowly and expected to be a prolonged process. Based on inventory numbers, pork supply is anticipated to remain ample in the second quarter, with a potential effective marginal decrease in supply after the third quarter.