SpaceX Plans IPO with Estimated Valuation Up to $2 Trillion

SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) with an estimated fundraising target between $50 billion and $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. According to Odaily, this could potentially be the largest IPO in history. Analysts suggest that SpaceX's high valuation may lead to its rapid inclusion in major indices and ETFs, with passive fund allocation possibly surpassing previous large IPOs. Under current rules and potential reforms, the Vanguard VTI and growth stock ETF VUG, which track the CRSP index, could include SpaceX within five trading days post-IPO. The Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by QQQ, might incorporate SpaceX within 15 trading days. The Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indices are expected to include SpaceX by September and December this year, respectively. The S&P 500 index, tracked by SPY, may include SpaceX in 2027 following rule modifications. SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 could range from 0.47% to 0.70%, higher than its proportion in most float-adjusted market cap-weighted indices. Analysts note that as the lock-up period ends and more internal shareholders sell shares, SpaceX's float could increase, further boosting its weight in mainstream indices. However, SpaceX's current challenge is its low float, with publicly traded shares estimated at only 2.86% to 3.75%, significantly lower than the average of over 80% for most large U.S. tech companies. This low float could affect its weight in indices using float-adjusted market cap weighting.