Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since April 30 during early Asian trading hours on Monday, sliding to $76,500 as fresh US-Iran tensions triggered a wave of forced selling across crypto markets. A single social media post from President Trump warning that the "clock is ticking" for Iran sent Brent crude briefly above $112 per barrel, wiped out $677 million in crypto positions in 24 hours, and dragged altcoins sharply lower — erasing all of Bitcoin's gains since May 1 in a matter of hours.
What triggered the move: Trump's Iran warning
The selloff began at the open of CME futures at 23:00 UTC on Sunday after Trump posted on social media that Iran had better "get moving, fast, or there won't be anything left of them." The comment signaled deteriorating prospects for the peace negotiations that markets had been cautiously pricing as a path toward de-escalation — and the reaction across risk assets was immediate.
Brent crude briefly topped $112 per barrel following the post before pulling back slightly. WTI surged above $103 in a matter of hours before correcting to around $101. Trading resource Capital.com noted the compounding macro dynamic: "Higher oil means hotter future inflation, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed expectations and lifting both the dollar and yields — a tough combination."
US equity futures edged lower, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each falling between 0.25% and 0.3%. Bitcoin fell approximately 2.4% to $76,500 at the CME open before extending losses further into Asian hours, with the total three-day decline reaching 7% from the recent $83,000 high.
Liquidations: $677 million in 24 hours, 500% spike
The forced deleveraging that accompanied the move was severe. Total crypto liquidations across all exchanges reached $677 million over 24 hours — a 500% spike from the prior session. Of that total, $607 million came from long positions, with Bitcoin longs accounting for $190 million. Market-wide futures notional volume surged 65% to $159 billion over the same period while open interest slipped 1.48% to $125 billion — a combination that signals forced position closures rather than fresh directional selling.
The liquidation cascade follows $607 million in long wipeouts just days earlier and extends a pattern of one-sided long positioning being repeatedly punished as Bitcoin has failed to break cleanly above the 200-day moving average at $82,000.
Derivatives: BCH crowded short, ZEC bulls hold firm
The derivatives market showed sharply divergent positioning across tokens. Bitcoin Cash open interest jumped 13% to 1.47 million coins — the most since April 6 — while annualized perpetual funding rates plunged to negative 72%, the most negative among major cryptocurrencies. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta was also the most negative in the market, reflecting aggressive selling at market prices. Rising open interest combined with deeply negative funding and negative CVD points to a heavily crowded short trade that could snap back violently if sentiment shifts.
Zcash told the opposite story. Open interest rose for a third consecutive day, topping 2 million tokens, with the 24-hour CVD the most positive among majors driven by aggressive buying. At 4%, the annualized funding rate remains well below overheated levels. The token is up 111% this quarter despite a recent pullback — a positioning structure that suggests bulls remain in control if the broader market stabilizes.
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index edged up to 42% from 40% since May 9, maintaining its inverse relationship with spot price. The MOVE index — which tracks volatility in US Treasury notes and serves as a barometer for global financial stress — jumped 14% on Friday, its largest single-day rise since March 26. A further spike in Treasury market volatility could push Bitcoin implied volatility meaningfully higher. On Deribit, large block trades showed a clear bias toward Bitcoin straddles — bets on a sharp move in either direction regardless of which way prices go — suggesting some traders view current implied volatility as cheap and are positioning for a volatility breakout.
Altcoins: BCH and DOGE lead losses, RUNE and KAIA buck the trend
Altcoins underperformed Bitcoin and the broader majors significantly. Bitcoin Cash dropped 10% since midnight UTC, leading losses among major tokens. Dogecoin fell 4.5%, dragging the CoinDesk Memecoin Select Index down 2.2% — the worst-performing benchmark of the session. Ether dropped approximately 3.5% to around $2,116, erasing April's rally following the wave of liquidations. The DeFi Select Index lost around 1.1%, while the Bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 shed approximately 0.6% — once again demonstrating Bitcoin's relative defensiveness during broad market weakness.
Two tokens bucked the trend. Thorchain's RUNE rose 3.8% as it began recovering from last week's $10 million cross-chain exploit. KAIA continued its strong recent run, gaining 1.6% since midnight and 3.5% over 24 hours as daily trading volume nearly tripled to $53 million.
Key support levels: $76,000 must hold or $65,000 comes into view
Analysts are watching the $76,000 level closely as the line between an uncomfortable correction and a deeper structural breakdown. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said immediate support at $76,000 must hold to "prevent a market-wide crash," with other support levels to watch if that zone is lost sitting at the $71,000 to $73,000 demand zone and the local low at $65,000 — representing a potential 16% drop from current levels.
The $65,000 target coincides with an inverted V-shaped pattern on the daily chart and mirrors the magnitude of the correction Bitcoin experienced after being rejected by the 200-day moving average in April 2025 — a historical parallel that several analysts have flagged as a cautionary comparison for the current setup.
Analyst CryptoJelleNL pointed to a bearish divergence in the relative strength index as Bitcoin ran into resistance at $82,000 as the technical catalyst for the current pullback, adding: "Bears getting back in the driver's seat?"
With oil above $100, bond yields elevated, Fed rate hike odds near 50%, and geopolitical escalation accelerating, the macro environment offers little near-term relief for Bitcoin's price structure. The $76,000 support level heading into Monday's US session is the most consequential technical test Bitcoin has faced since its April recovery began.
Anais
Weatherly