Analysis suggests that reports of a near-agreement between the US and Iran surfaced 70 minutes before an unusual short position of $920 million appeared in the oil market, with a floating profit of approximately $125 million.

According to analysis by market watchdog The Kobeissi Letter, approximately $920 million worth of short positions in crude oil were established 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement on a "14-point" deal to end the war. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), without any major news, nearly 10,000 short contracts for crude oil were established in the market. In notional terms, this transaction was worth approximately $920 million, an exceptionally large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later, at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close" to reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the war with Iran. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen by more than 12%, and the aforementioned short positions in crude oil had a floating profit of approximately $125 million. (Jinshi)