QCP: The key watershed for the continuation of Bitcoin's short-term upward trend may be between $82,000 and $83,000.

A QCP Capital analysis points out that after a solid performance in April, Bitcoin continued its strong upward trend in early May, breaking the $80,000 mark for the first time since January 31. This rise is synchronized with the performance of US stocks, and the correlation between BTC and the US stock market has rebounded to levels close to those of 2023, indicating a renewed strengthening of its linkage with risk assets. Notably, BTC still rose despite Strategy's suspension of Bitcoin purchases this week, suggesting that market momentum is no longer solely reliant on the "hoarding narrative" but is gradually shifting towards broader financial support. Spot ETF inflows remain a significant positive factor, recording a net inflow of approximately $163 million last week. Although there were some outflows between April 27 and 29 (possibly related to month-end rebalancing and basis trading adjustments), Friday's large inflow of approximately $630 million largely offset the previous outflows, maintaining overall positive support. QCP points out that while ETF funds and continued Strategy holdings continue to support the market, the current rally may indicate that broader institutional participation is creating new momentum. The key going forward is whether BTC can effectively hold above the CME gap range of $82,000 to $83,000, which will be a crucial watershed for the continuation of the short-term trend. On the macro front, despite lingering geopolitical risks (especially the US-Iran situation), market volatility remains low, with the VIX currently hovering around 17, indicating that the market is temporarily betting on a de-escalation. However, with the US launching "Project Freedom," Iran's response could potentially impact the market. This week is packed with macro and industry events, including Job Openings (JOLTS), ADP employment data, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and earnings reports from crypto-related companies such as Coinbase and Block, which could exacerbate market volatility. Overall, QCP believes that in the absence of a clear upward breakout signal, the market may continue its oscillating pattern. Rebounds in volatility and spot prices may be met with selling pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a stronger catalyst to drive BTC to form a sustained breakout.