Opinion: Predictive markets become a "real-time radar" for geopolitical risks; bets on the Iran situation dominate Bitcoin volatility.

Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, analyzed that prediction markets are rapidly evolving into a "real-time radar" for traders monitoring macroeconomic risks during the escalation of the Iranian conflict. Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are rapidly repricing their bets on whether the US will escalate the conflict, and this is directly correlated with Bitcoin price movements. Prediction markets price "clear-cut event outcomes" with real money, providing a more differentiated signal for the crypto market, which is significantly driven by "binary events" such as regulation, geopolitics, and protocol escalations. Data shows that prediction market transactions reached approximately 191 million in March, a year-on-year increase of 2838%, with monthly notional trading volume rising to approximately $23.9 billion. Some professional trading teams have incorporated prediction markets into their macroeconomic analysis frameworks, using them alongside indicators such as funding rates, option structures, and fund flows to develop trading strategies before events occur. (Cointelegraph)