Economists: Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Economists say the sudden surge in gasoline prices, felt by American consumers, will be fully reflected in key inflation data released this week. The US March CPI is expected to rise 1% month-over-month, the largest monthly increase since 2022; core CPI is likely to rise 0.3% month-over-month. The Iran war previously pushed up gasoline prices at US gas stations by about $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI data release, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge will provide information on pre-war price pressures. Economists expect the core PCE price index to rise 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, suggesting that even before the conflict, the process of inflation falling to a more moderate level had stalled. Combined with signs of stabilization in the US labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflationary risks from the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to lower interest rates this year. (Jinshi)