Polymarket's probability that the "US Department of Homeland Security shutdown will last more than 70 days" has plummeted to 8%, a 45% drop in 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 70 days has plummeted to 8% on Polymarket, a 45% drop in 24 hours. The contract volume for this event has exceeded $1.27 million. The contract rules state that if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown, which began on February 14, 2026, lasts for at least the number of days listed in the market (including start and end dates), it will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." The end date of the shutdown will be based on the date the President signs or otherwise enacts the appropriations bill for the reopening of the Department of Homeland Security; announcements of an impending reopening are not counted. President Trump just stated that he will soon sign an order to pay the salaries of all the admirable employees of the Department of Homeland Security. Trump also thanked House Speaker Johnson and Thune for their work this week and praised the progress made by congressional Republicans on the Department of Homeland Security issue. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.