K33: Bitcoin's sideways movement signals a bottoming out; selling pressure receding may trigger a structural reversal.

Crypto research firm K33 suggests that Bitcoin's recent sideways consolidation may indicate a shift in market structure, with selling pressure easing and the market potentially approaching a temporary bottom. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, points out that Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks. This range, accompanied by stabilizing ETF flows and long-term holder behavior, is typically considered a "market bottoming" pattern, and the current low of around $70,000 is attractive to medium- to long-term investors. The report shows that since late February, Bitcoin ETF flows have turned to moderate net inflows, suggesting that the concentrated distribution phase since the historical high may be nearing its end. Profit-taking and passive selling triggered by falling below holding costs are weakening, and market supply pressure is decreasing as prices fall. Regarding long-term holders, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than six months, after a significant drop at the end of 2025, has rebounded, indicating that investors are more inclined to hold rather than sell at the current price range, which helps stabilize prices. However, the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. Middle East geopolitical conflicts and oil price volatility, coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, have suppressed risk appetite and limited new capital inflows. Derivatives data also reflects market caution: open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts is near its lowest level this year, and funding rates remain negative, indicating weak long demand; meanwhile, CME futures positions are largely unchanged, suggesting institutional traders are generally remaining on the sidelines. Nevertheless, K33 believes that the combination of easing selling pressure, stabilizing ETF funds, and range-bound price action suggests the market may be transitioning from a distribution phase to a bottoming phase, although short-term upside potential remains constrained by macroeconomic factors. (The Block)