Analysis: The timing of the Fed's rate cut remains a "black box," and the energy shock may erode the room for further easing.

Recent inflation and employment data have been moderate, leaving the Federal Reserve with no immediate urgency to cut interest rates. Analysts believe the timing of any rate cut by the Fed remains a "black box." Meanwhile, the Iraq War has pushed up energy prices, exacerbating the risk of a short-term inflation rebound and increasing uncertainty about the future inflation path. This further complicates the Fed's decision-making, making it clear that interest rates will remain unchanged. Market focus has shifted to the scope and timing of rate cuts. However, energy disruptions introduce new variables into the economic outlook, and internal disagreements within the Fed may influence the easing path this year. (Jinshi)