The International Energy Agency has drastically lowered its oil supply growth forecast, citing the Middle East wars as causing the largest oil supply disruption in history.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for oil supply growth a day after implementing a historic emergency release of oil reserves, citing the Middle East conflict disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA now expects oil supplies to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, a significant downward revision from its previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day. All of the supply growth is expected to come from outside OPEC+, as the conflict forces major Gulf oil producers to cut output. March oil supplies are projected to plummet by 8 million barrels per day to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. The IEA stated, "The Middle East conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." (Jinshi)