Garrett, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," stated on the X platform that Brent crude oil prices are still in the first phase, and many market narratives have not yet brought about substantial changes. For example, the G7's statement that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is "ready to be released" is more of a gesture than a real solution, and expectations regarding a ceasefire remain largely at the narrative level. There is a lot of noise in the market right now, but the truly crucial question is only one: will the Strait of Hormuz be open? The answer is still no. If this vital shipping chokepoint remains restricted, the duration of this restriction will become a core variable affecting energy market trading.