Bloomberg strategist: Crypto market downturn may be the start of a "deflationary domino effect," Iranian situation could trigger US recession.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodities Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote on the X platform that the market is discussing whether the situation in Iran could trigger the next US economic recession. Currently, US stock valuations are at historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100's 180-day volatility is near its lowest point since 2018. A significant increase in volatility in the future could validate his assessment of a market turning point. The current decline in crypto assets may only be the beginning of a "post-inflation deflation domino effect." The crypto market previously experienced excessive gains and increased supply; the price pullback is, to some extent, a correction of over-inflation. Regarding oil, the recent surge in oil prices often shakes out short sellers, stimulates increased supply, and may trigger the risk of a global economic recession. The high volatility in the precious metals and energy markets may gradually spread to the stock market. He predicts that after Bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, US Treasury bonds (T-bonds) may become the main asset with excess returns in 2026. However, if in the future Bitcoin stabilizes at $74,000, copper prices rise to $6, silver rises to $100, the S&P 500 reaches 7,000 points, the Dow Jones rises to 50,000 points, and US Treasury yields rise above 5%, then his current judgment may be proven wrong.