Wintermute: There is clearly insufficient buying pressure for BTC at the current price level, and the market remains very fragile.

Wintermute noted that this week's cryptocurrency decline was driven more by macroeconomic factors than by specific coin-specific factors. The weekend drop absorbed the first wave of geopolitical panic, while the rebound stemmed from the market's perception that Bitcoin had already fallen 45% from its all-time high, with most of the negative news already priced in. However, the impact of energy factors was underestimated. Persistently high oil prices could keep inflation high, and central banks, which had hoped to curb inflation, could further delay US interest rate cuts. Cryptocurrencies are at a disadvantage in this game. Late last week, ETF flows reversed, with net inflows exceeding $1 billion, ending five consecutive weeks of outflows. Although year-to-date outflows remain around $4.5 billion, long-term holders appear to be holding relatively little, and most of the recent sell-off is related to speculative positions rather than institutional investor exits. Current trading activity shows significantly lower institutional participation than during the $85,000 to $95,000 trading range from November last year to September this year. At that time, institutional trading was much more active, especially during price declines. Currently, at the current price level, buying interest is clearly insufficient. The market appears quite fragile.