CITIC Securities: The situation in Iran is still changing rapidly, and it is unlikely that a final scenario can be predicted and interpreted in one go.

A research report from CITIC Securities stated that on February 28th local time, the situation in Iran entered a phase of military conflict. The situation in Iran is still rapidly changing, and CITIC Securities anticipates that it is difficult to predict and interpret the final scenario in one go. It is more likely that the situation will continue to fluctuate based on important signals. CITIC Securities believes that whether there are potential changes in three key signals—US military mobilization, changes in the Iranian political situation, and the scope of the conflict's spillover—will determine whether the global market impact will be an amplified version of the "12-Day War" in June 2025, or a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for the potential market impact, CITIC Securities reviewed the market impact of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, summarizing the following patterns: gold is a better safe-haven asset than the US dollar; oil prices still depend on supply and demand in the long term; US stock market performance is directly related to the degree of US military intervention and the course of the war; and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets. (Jinshi)