Glassnode: Bitcoin has entered a phase of "over-stopping," and if history repeats itself, it may fall to $44,000.

On-chain data provider Glassnode points out that Bitcoin is entering an "excess loss-realization" phase. If historical trends continue, the price may remain under pressure in the coming months, with a potential downside target around $44,000. Data shows that on Monday, Bitcoin's 90-day moving average "realized loss ratio" fell below 1, indicating that the market is generally in a state of loss-selling. This indicator below 1 typically reflects panic selling, margin pressure, or a decline in macroeconomic risk appetite. Historically, after this indicator falls below 1, it is often accompanied by a continuous loss-realization period of at least six months; if it rises back above 1, it usually indicates easing selling pressure. Past bear market experience shows that loss-selling usually accelerates in the middle of the cycle, accompanied by further declines. In the 2022 bear market, within six months after this indicator fell below 1, the price of Bitcoin cumulatively fell by about 25%; a similar phase in 2018 saw a plunge of over 50% within five months. If history repeats itself, this correction may still last for about five months, completing the transition to a "full-scale excessive loss realization phase." If the market continues to deleverage and the pressure to realize losses is released, the price of Bitcoin may continue to be under pressure in the coming months until the cyclical clearing is completed.